What is a Grade Probability Matrix?

A Grade Probability Matrix shows the likelihood of each possible grade (1 through 10) for your card across PSA, BGS, CGC, and SGC. Instead of a single grade guess, you see the full probability distribution so you can calculate expected value and assess risk before submitting.

What is a Capital Score?

The Capital Score is a 0-100 ROI metric that combines grade probability, grading fees, and market value into a single number. Scores above 70 indicate a strong submit, 40-70 are borderline, and below 40 suggest holding the card raw. It removes the guesswork from grading decisions.

How accurate is the AI grade prediction?

GradingMetric's AI has been calibrated on over 24,000 professionally graded cards and maintains less than 3% error. The model analyzes centering, corners, edges, and surface quality using GPT-4O vision technology to produce accurate grade predictions across all four major grading companies.

What is a Grader Fit Score?

A Grader Fit Score shows how well your specific card matches each grading company's standards. Since PSA, BGS, CGC, and SGC weigh centering, corners, edges, and surface differently, the same card can receive different grades at different companies. The Grader Fit Score helps you choose the best company for each card.

Powerful AI Analysis for Every Card

From grade prediction to ROI optimization, everything you need.

Grade Probability Matrix

Stop guessing 'PSA 9 or 10?' See the actual probability of every grade before you pay for submission.

Our AI produces a full probability distribution across every grade level, from PSA 1 through Gem Mint 10. Instead of a single guess, you see the exact likelihood of each possible outcome. This lets you calculate expected value, assess risk, and make confident decisions backed by data rather than gut feeling.

Grade Probability Matrix

Grader	10	9	8	Fit
PSA	24%	52%	18%	82
BGS	8%	41%	33%	63
CGC	28%	50%	17%	77
SGC	12%	39%	36%	58

Capital Score (0-100)

One number that answers: should I submit this card or hold? AI weighs grade odds, condition, and grader fit to decide.

The Capital Score distills complex financial analysis into one easy-to-understand number. It factors in the probability of each grade, the current grading fees for each company, estimated turnaround time, and the market value differential between raw and graded cards. A score above 70 means submitting is likely profitable, while below 40 suggests holding.

Capital Score

Submit to PSA

Expected ROI+$145

Grading cost$30

Est. graded value$275

Grader Fit Scores

Your card might be a PSA 9 but a CGC 9.5. See which grader gives your card the best shot.

Different grading companies have different standards and tolerances. PSA may be stricter on centering while BGS weighs surface quality more heavily. Our Grader Fit Scores analyze your specific card's characteristics against each company's grading tendencies, showing you which grader gives you the best chance at the highest grade.

Grader Fit Scores

PSABest

82fit

Grade 9 at 52%

CGC

77fit

Grade 9 at 50%

BGS

63fit

Grade 9 at 41%

SGC

58fit

Grade 9 at 39%

Defect Detection

That centering you think is fine? It might cost you a full grade. AI catches what your eyes miss.

Before you spend money on submission fees and shipping, our AI performs a thorough inspection of your card. It identifies centering deviations, corner wear, edge whitening, surface scratches, print lines, and other defects that graders look for. Each defect is categorized by severity so you know exactly what might hold your card back.

Defect Analysis

Centering

58/42 — Within tolerance

Corners

Sharp, no visible wear

Edges

Trace whitening on bottom

Surface

Clean, no scratches

Batch Management

Building a 50-card PSA order? Sort by Capital Score so you only send cards worth submitting.

When you are preparing a grading submission of dozens or hundreds of cards, organization is critical. Batch management lets you analyze multiple cards at once, sort and filter results by grade prediction or Capital Score, and build optimized submission batches. Streamline your workflow from analysis to shipping.

Batch Management

+ New Batch

Vintage Lot #12

24 cards

71%

submit rate

avg score

active

Pokemon Hits

18 cards

83%

submit rate

avg score

active

Baseball RC Batch

42 cards

64%

submit rate

avg score

submitted

CSV Export

Export every prediction, score, and recommendation. Build smarter submissions over time.

Export your complete analysis data to CSV for integration with your existing inventory systems, spreadsheets, or financial tracking tools. Every data point from grade predictions to Capital Scores is included, making it easy to maintain records, track your grading history, and perform additional analysis.

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Export CSV

Card ID	Grader	Grade	Prob	Capital	Action
a3f8c2d1	PSA	9	52%	76	Submit
b7e4a190	CGC	10	34%	82	Submit
c9d12ef3	PSA	8	61%	38	Hold
d2f09b44	BGS	9.5	28%	71	Submit
e5a83c77	SGC	9	45%	44	Borderline

The Capital Score Explained

A single metric that tells you whether to submit or hold

The Capital Score combines three key factors into a 0-100 metric that drives every grading decision. It removes the guesswork and gives you a clear, data-backed recommendation.

Grade Probability

The AI predicts the likelihood of each grade for your card across all four grading companies.

Grading Fees

Submission costs, shipping, and insurance are factored in for each grading company and service level.

Market Value

Estimated value increase after grading, based on recent sales data for comparable graded cards.

Score Ranges

70-100: Submit

40-69: Borderline

0-39: Hold

Supported Grading Companies

Get predictions tailored to each grading company's standards

PSA

Professional Sports Authenticator

1-10 scale

The most popular grading company in the hobby. PSA grades command the highest market premiums for most cards.

BGS

Beckett Grading Services

1-10 scale with subgrades

Known for detailed subgrades in centering, corners, edges, and surface. BGS 9.5 and Black Labels are highly sought after.

CGC

Certified Guaranty Company

1-10 scale

A newer entrant gaining market share with competitive pricing and fast turnaround times.

SGC

Sportscard Guaranty Corporation

1-10 scale

Preferred for vintage cards with a reputation for consistent, fair grading standards.

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